Fifth UN Security Council Straw Poll: No Clear Consensus Emerges in the Race for the Next Secretary-General

The fifth informal straw poll of the United Nations Security Council on candidates for the next Secretary-General took place on 7 October, with no candidate emerging with sufficient support to indicate a clear path forward.

Rebeca Grynspan remains in first place, but her support has weakened compared with the previous round. The Costa Rican candidate received 9 votes to encourage, 6 to discourage and 0 with no opinion expressed, down from 10 favourable votes in the fourth straw poll. Rafael Grossi moved into second place with 6 encourage, 7 discourage and 2 no opinion. Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett received 5 encourage, 9 discourage and 1 no opinion, while Macky Sall recorded 5 encourage, 10 discourage and 0 no opinion. María Fernanda Espinosa received 3 encourage, 9 discourage and 3 no opinion, followed by Olara Otunnu, with 3 encourage, 12 discourage and 0 no opinion. Ivonne A-Baki received 0 encourage, 14 discourage and 1 no opinion.

Grynspan's nine favourable votes are enough to place her at the top of the fifth poll and meet the nine-vote threshold required for a Security Council recommendation. However, the increase in unfavourable votes—from three in the previous round to six—points to continued divisions within the Council.

The results underline the absence of a clear consensus among Security Council members. While Grynspan remains the candidate with the strongest level of support, every other candidate received more discourage than encourage votes in this round.

The sixth straw poll is expected on 16 October and is expected to use colour-coded ballots, which could provide greater visibility into whether any candidate faces opposition from one or more permanent members of the Security Council.

With the current mandate of Secretary-General António Guterres ending on 31 December 2026, the latest results leave the race open and underscore the continued absence of a clear consensus on who should lead the United Nations from 2027.